Dow Jones at 5,000
within 5 years?
(October 3, 2012)
Will history repeat itself? It's certainly a
possibility . Get ready for recession if we are lucky, another great depression
if we're not
"We will not have any more crashes
in our time"
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927
"There may be
a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash"
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929
"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been
sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S." -
President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933
From 1982 to 2000, the U.S. stock market went on the longest bull
run ever, as share prices rose to dizzying heights. In the late
1990s, a combination of factors, which included the Federal Reserve lowering
interest rates, created a huge price bubble in Internet stocks. A
speculative bubble occurs when price far outstrips the fundamental
worth of the asset.
Arun Gupta
Coming soon to U.S., 1 million jobs lost every month: Report
London-based GFC Economics is
making a frightening prediction: By spring 2009, the United States could be
facing more than 1 million layoffs every successive month.
The financial crisis that began 13 months ago has entered a new, far more
serious phase
Lingering hopes that the damage could be contained to a
handful of financial institutions that made bad bets on mortgages have
evaporated. New fault lines are emerging beyond the original problem -- troubled
subprime mortgages
-- in areas like credit-default swaps, the credit insurance contracts
sold by American International
Group Inc. and others firms.
Wall Street is bracing for regional and small banks to
fess up to large losses from their mounting volume of soured construction
loans made primarily to home builders.
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.,
$45.4 billion of the $631.8 billion in construction loans outstanding at the
end of the first quarter were delinquent. When banks announce second-quarter
results in coming weeks, they are expected to report sharp increases in
loans that builders can't repay. Banks are also facing intensifying
pressure from federal and state regulators to deal with the problem loans on
their books.
The reality is that we probably saw a
decrease in jobs of at least 100,000. The market was upset with 40,000. What will it do when the monthly number
prints 100,000 later this year? And it likely will. The Federal Reserve
projects that unemployment will rise to 6%. That means there are a lot more
jobs to be lost. And that is if unemployment stops at 6%, which would be a
very mild recession indeed.
FDIC Chairman Shiela Bair warned that “as of Sept. 30,
there were 65 institutions with assets of $18.5 billion on its list of
"problem" institutions;” although she wouldn't give names.
So, what does it all mean? It means there's going to
be an unprecedented wave of bank closures in the US and that people who want
to hold on to their life savings are going have to be extra vigilant as the
situation continues to deteriorate. And it is deteriorating very quickly
Last year, David Walker, comptroller general of the US,
caused controversy when he compared America's current situation with the
dying days of the Roman empire and warned the country was on "a burning
platform" of unsustainable policies.
Medicare and Medicaid spending, which has risen sharply over the past few
decades and now accounts for about 45 per cent of total federal spending, up
from about 25 per cent in 1975, has long been a source of concern.
Last month, Peter Orszag, director of the Congressional Budget Office,
which advises Congress on the federal budget, said the issue was "the
central fiscal challenge" facing the US
The ticking time bomb in the U.S. banking
system is not resetting subprime mortgage rates. The real problem is the
contractual ability of investors in mortgage bonds to require banks to buy
back the loans at face value if there was fraud in the origination process.
Panic of 2008 Forecast: U.S. dollar could plunge 90 pct A financial crisis will likely send the U.S. dollar into a free fall of
as much as 90 percent and gold soaring to $2,000 an ounce, a trends researcher
said We are going to see economic times the likes of which no living person has
seen," Trends Research Institute Director Gerald Celente said, forecasting
a
"Panic of 2008."
Blackstone's president warned that the
sub-prime crisis on Wall Street was getting "deeper, darker and scarier"
yesterday as the US private equity firm posted a loss for the third quarter,
hit by a fall in real-estate revenues and charges related to its initial
public offering.
Noting that consumption is already slowing, Mr. Melcher figures sharply
rising unemployment is inevitable. Another of his worries is that central
banks around the globe,
America's included,
are debasing their currencies, which is setting the stage for a new round of
higher inflation. Our bear figures the next six to 12 months will be awful
for investors as the market goes down "pretty substantially." His
frightening outlook calls for an additional 20% to 30% decline from current
levels. A drop of that magnitude would put the Dow down in a range of
roughly 9,100 to 10,400.
Across the nation, Americans are increasingly unable
to stretch their dollars to the next payday as they juggle higher rent, food
and energy bills. It's starting to affect middle-income working families as
well as the poor, and has reached the point of affecting day-to-day
calculations of merchants like Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT)
(WMT),
7-Eleven Inc. and Family Dollar Stores Inc. (FDO)
(FDO)
Food pantries, which distribute foodstuffs to the needy, are reporting
severe shortages and reduced government funding at the very time that they
are seeing a surge of new people seeking their help.
While economists debate whether the country is headed for a recession,
some say the financial stress is already the worst since the last downturn
at the start of this decade
We
could be looking at the world's largest tag sale if we continue to see
declines in the dollar," said Donald Klepper-Smith, chief economist at
DataCore Partners
The
US government is on a ‘burning platform’ of unsustainable
policies and practices with fiscal deficits, chronic healthcare
underfunding, immigration and overseas military commitments
threatening a crisis if action is not taken soon, the country’s
top government inspector has warned.
David Walker, comptroller general of the US, issued the
unusually downbeat assessment of his country’s future in a
report that lays out what he called “chilling long-term
simulations”
There has been a
profound and fundamental change in the world economy over the past decade.
The very triumph of financial liberalization and deregulation, one of the
keystones of the “Washington consensus that the U.S. government,
International Monetary Fund (IMF), and World Bank have persistently and
successfully attempted over the past decades to implement, have also
produced a deepening crisis that its advocates scarcely expected.
The global financial
structure is today far less transparent than ever. There are many
fewer reporting demands imposed on those who operate in it. Financial
adventurers are constantly creating new “products” that defy both
nation-states and international banks. The IMF’s managing director, Rodrigo
de Rato, at the end of May 2006 deplored these new risks – risks that the
weakness of the U.S. dollar and its mounting trade deficits have magnified
greatly
"Much has been written about
panics and mania…. But one thing is certain; that at particular times a
great deal of stupid people have a great deal of stupid money. At
intervals… the money of these people — the blind capital, as we call it,
of the country — is particularly large and craving: it seeks for someone
to devour it and there is a 'plethora'; it finds someone and there is a
'speculation'; it is devoured and there is a panic"
The
days of the dollar as the world’s “reserve currency” may be drawing to a close.
In August, foreign central banks and governments dumped a whopping 3.8 per cent
of their holdings of US debt. Rising unemployment and the ongoing housing slump
have triggered fears of a recession sending wary foreign investors running for
the exits. China, Japan and Taiwan have been leading the sell off which has
caused the steepest decline since 1992.
To some extent,
the losses have been concealed by the up-tick in Treasuries sales to US
investors who’ve been fleeing the money markets in droves. Investors have been
trying to avoid the fallout from money funds that have been contaminated by
mortgage-backed assets. Naturally, they bought US government bonds which are
considered a safe bet. But that doesn’t change the fact that the dollar’s
foundation is steadily eroding and that foreign support for the dollar is
vanishing. US bonds are no longer regarded as a “safe haven”. . . .
. . . The Bush Team was warned repeatedly---by the BIS, the
World Bank, the IMF and the European Central Bank ECB---that their policies were
“unsustainable” and would end in an economic meltdown. But they brushed aside
the warnings with the same casual indifference as they did the critics of the
war in Iraq
The US
economy continues its slow death before our eyes, but economists, policymakers,
and most of the public are blind to the tottering fabled land of opportunity.
In August jobs
in goods-producing industries declined by 64,000. The US economy lost
4,000 jobs overall. The private sector created a mere 24,000 jobs, all of
which could be attributed to the 24,100 new jobs for waitresses and bartenders.
The government sector lost 28,000 jobs.
In the 21st century the US economy has ceased to create jobs
in export industries and in industries that compete with imports. US job
growth has been confined to domestic services, principally to food services and
drinking places (waitresses and bartenders), private education and health
services (ambulatory health care and hospital orderlies), and construction
(which now has tanked). The lack of job growth in higher productivity,
higher paid occupations associated with the American middle and upper middle
classes will eventually kill the US consumer market
The U.S. economy, once the envy of the world,
is now viewed across the globe with suspicion. America has become shackled by an
immovable mountain of debt that endangers its prosperity and threatens to bring
the rest of the world economy crashing down with it.
The ongoing sub-prime mortgage crisis, a result of irresponsible lending
policies designed to generate commissions for unscrupulous brokers, presages far
deep[ Home Page ][ Gothic Angel Art ][ Angel Fantasy Art ][ Angel Art Guardian Angles.htm ][ Guardian Angles ]er problems in a U.S. economy that is beginning to resemble a giant
smoke-and-mirrors Ponzi scheme. And this has not been lost on the rest of the
world
In the case of empires, a way to gage solvency is, how big is their own reserves
compared to the size of these same currency reserves held by potentially hostile
rivals? In the case of the USA, we send dollars out as fast as we can print them
And if we think of these funds as boats, then China has Noah's Ark, Japan
has an aircraft carrier, Europe has a holiday cruise liner, Russia has a
very fancy yacht and the USA has a rowboat made out of an old bathtub. That
is leaking.
China has $1.3 trillion in its reserves and is therefore, King of
the Mountain. Japan has $900 billion and is no longer holding new
currency so all the red ink in trade is no longer staying away, it
is floating back home to here, as inflation. Europe has about $600
billion and Russia, $330 billion. The USA has only $66 billion and
the numbers released today by the Federal Reserve shows that number
is DROPPING. Yikes
The consequences of this episode should not be underestimated and the adjustment
process is likely to be protracted. Credit conditions may not normalize soon,
and some of the practices that have developed in the structured credit markets
will have to change
In its latest update of its economic forecasts next month, the
IMF is expected to slash its forecast for US economic growth next year – perhaps
to as low as 1pc-1.5pc